I’ve just placed a sizeable 6 figure bet on TRUMP to win re-election in the US 2020 presidential race, here’s why…
Many of my long time readers will remember my wager on Trump to win the election in 2016 which returned over 500%, a giant trade and a result that most people around me said could never happen. Fast forward to 2020, and those same people are telling me Trump can’t win again.
Readers might also remember I predicted three big events for 2020 in my Coronavirus article I posted in March 2020, two of which have come true so far, with one pending.
1. The US economy would bounce back in a V shape recovery (called that correctly so far). 2. The stock market crash was a buying opportunity (called that correctly as market has surged higher). 3. Trump was likely to be re elected in 2020 (result pending, will know shortly).
For those interested in the 2020 election from a from a financial markets / betting markets perspective, this article will outline why I believe Trump will win re-election in 2020 and retain the white house. Just like I did for the 2016 US election, I am going to be presenting some unique data and various perspectives on the 2020 US election that most people are usually afraid to share publicly or have not bothered to go out and find from alternative publications outside of the mainstream media outlets.
To benefit from this article you will need to put your political bias and any views of Trump aside for a moment. I’m not American, but after seeing Trump’s first term in office, I would personally vote for Trump in 2020 for a variety of financial and economic reasons. In saying that, remember, I am a business person, a trader and investor, so there are built in capitalistic biases here. I have good friends in the USA who have left and right side views, and it always makes for a good healthy debate, but it never divides us and it never should. I do not judge people for having different political views, we all have our reasons for these views, different upbringings and different circumstances that lead to us having these belief systems. With that said, these differing views don’t have a place in Predicting the 2020 election or any election for that matter, and we must remove all emotion in performing meaningful analysis.
Here’s why I believe TRUMP wins 2020.
Disclaimer: (Don’t trade, invest or bet based on the views in this article, please do your own research)
The Statistical Metrics:
The Prediction Polls are wrong (again).
We all know 99% of the polling predictions were wrong in 2016, and many contrarians now believe they are wrong again in 2020 (including me). As of today, the few polls I know of that correctly predicted the 2016 election are also predicting a Trump win in 2020.
Rasmussen, one of the the most accurate pollsters that predicted 2016 election result, is today showing 52% of Americans approve of Trump as president, a number that is equal to or higher than Obama was at going into his Final term as president in 2012. The presidential approval rating is tracked daily and is rapidly increasing in recent weeks.
The Trafalgar Group pollsters had been incredibly accurate in 2016 election using a state by state electoral college prediction model with unique questions and unique collection methods, proving far superior to other pollsters. They are known for apply a different polling method designed to target silent Trump voters who are usually too afraid to give an opinion to a stranger out of fear of being attacked or trolled. One question they ask voters is ‘Who is your Neighbor voting for’ which has a very high level of success in predicting US elections as it turns out, and apparently the answer to this question is overwhelmingly as ‘Trump’. They are also known for connecting with African American and Hispanic voters in a unique way to create a more ‘ real world ‘ sample size of the American voter demographic in each state. For 2020 Trafalgar are again predicting the US electoral college will be won by Trump, and they are currently reporting an accelerating move to Trump in key swing states (US states that historically can change from Democrat to Republican or vice versa) in the closing stages of the race. Trafalgar poll data is often completely different to mainstream poll data you might see on TV or mainstream websites. All we can go off is who was most accurate previously, and Trafalgar have that edge in both 2016 main election and the 2018 mid term election, so they should have our attention.
We have a famous Gallop poll that reported 56% of Americans say they are better off financially under Trump than under Obama/Biden, the highest number recorded ever for that poll. This just can’t be ignored especially when you consider we are in the middle of a Pandemic and an economic slow down. The ‘are you better off poll’ has been a major predictor of US election results in recent years.
Back in 2016, an article by radio host and author Wayne Allyn Root helped me fully understand Fake Polls and the Hidden Trump vote. He is again out there discussing these same points for Trump in 2020, citing fake polls and social evidence proving Trump’s overwhelming popularity. You can read a recent article by Wayne Allyn Root on Trump’s chances for 2020 here.
From the above sources, we can see the Polling evidence shows momentum for Trump late into the race, just like 2016. Keep an eye on the Rasmussen Daily Presidential approval rating poll and Trafalgar state by state polling data closer to election day.
The Primary Model predicts US election wins 90% of the time:
Professor Helmut Norpoth accurately predicts US elections using a method he has developed call the ‘Primary Model’. He looks at the % of vote each Presidential candidate received within their own respective political party during the Primary vote before the main election. According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in 2020. For the record, the Primary Model has picked the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. You can read more about Professor Norpoths Primary Model here.
Trump has the incumbent edge:
Most Presidents typically get re-elected for a 2nd term. It’s very hard to win an election against the Incumbent president.
It’s very interesting to note that in the three times in history that America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year, the incumbent political party has had a 3-0 winning record in those elections.
Of the forty five presidents who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, IF they have attempted to run for a second term. Some may argue the recession changes these statistics for re-election of the incumbent president, but when you look more closely, the stats on re-election of a President who won an election (as opposed to being promoted from vice president to president), are actually closer to 50/50 during a pandemic, so there is no statistical bias to note.
The Social Metrics:
Trump’s supporters and enthusiasm are completely unmatched.
Trump has true ‘love of country’, and a lot of the country loves him back, despite what the media says. Drive anywhere in most of the USA’s 50 states right now (except California and New York), and you are far more likely to see Trump signs and flags lining freeways, streets and front yards. Attend a Trump campaign rally, a presidential motorcade drive by, an air force one landing or take off, a car or boat parade or anything involving President Trump that’s an ‘in person’ event where fans can gather and cheer, and the attendance numbers are staggering in size. These are the largest numbers of support on the ground for any Presidential candidate in US election history. Biden doesn’t even make a dent on Trump’s ground support and the enthusiasm, with a handful of voters turning out for any of Biden’s campaign events. We are talking about completely different stratospheres of enthusiasm between the candidates here. Those that follow elections know that Enthusiasm wins elections. Trump has a truly unshakeable supporter base and as of Today’s polling numbers has mid 90% approval rating within the Republican party which is probably the highest on record.
Trump Campaign Rally In Front Of Air Force 1
Social media engagement heavily favors Trump
President Trumps social media account’s engagement drastically dwarfs his opponent Biden’s accounts by several hundred percent. Trump has omnipresence online, he is the topic of the minute, the hour, the day, the week, the month, he is always everywhere. The broader right leaning Republican and conservative social media influencer accounts have around 10 times (yes TEN times) the social sharing and virality that the Democratic left leaning social media influencer accounts have. As an example, if you go to YouTube to watch a video with anything about Trump (that isn’t CNN or MSNBC), you will usually always see substantially higher ‘thumbs up votes’ than on a video about Biden. Trump’s support is hiding in plain sight online, just as they where in 2016, but now it’s becoming more obvious. Professor Bela Stantic of Griffith University Australia, (Nick named ‘Nostradamus of the 21st Century’) has accurately predicted 3 major long shot political votes in recent years using social media analysis. He predicted Trumps 2016 win, UK’s Brexit, The 2019 Australian election and many more. He now predicts Trump will win 2020. You can watch a recent interview with Professor Bela Stantic’s 2020 US election prediction here.
Biased left media actually strengthens Trump’s support base and has the opposite effect to what is intended.
It’s no secret that the big Media players and Social media giants are incredibly left wing biased and are virtual extensions of the Democratic party, with a goal of controlling a left wing narrative online. Go to your Twitter news feed or Google news feed and this bias becomes obvious. Go to the CNN, MSNBC or ABC website and then compares those 3 media outlets to the FOX News website, and you will clearly see the left wing media treats Trump with extreme bias and simply doesn’t cover any positive stories in order to prevent Democrats reading anything positive about the president. The bias is staggering, with around 90% of all news about Trump being negative on left wing media platforms. The problem for the Democrats is that when you have 90% of news bashing a person that almost 50% of American people voted for, love and support, you create a massive social a retaliation and movement which manifests in even stronger support for Trump over time. Despite what some say, there are a large number of Americans that are smart enough to see what is going on, and many make a stand against this unfair censorship and suppression of the truth by voting for Trump.
New Republican registration numbers are up
There are larger numbers of Republican voters registering than Democrats in key ‘swing states’ (the key states that decide US elections). This might just turn out to be very relevant in one of the key swing states that decide the election. Remember that Trump won some states in 2016 by razor thin margins.
Biden is a weak candidate
We should firstly remember Joe Biden has ran for president 2 times before and failed, this will be his 3rd attempt! Biden’s boring persona, old age and terrible track record during his 47 years in US politics really does make him a very weak candidate. He has no exciting plans or tag lines for his policies that have caught on. This contrasts with Trump’s massive ego, charisma and strong presence (Many Americans relate to and are drawn to his persona, believe me). He has a major skill in branding his plans and policies into catchy tag lines such as ‘Build a Wall’ and ‘Drain The Swamp’ and more recently ‘Fill That Seat’ and ‘The Cure Can Not Be Worse Than The Problem’ etc. This combination of personality and memorable tag lines, works together to excite his base and recruits new voters to his bas who might not have noticed him otherwise.
Biden is really a placeholder for his vice president candidate Kamala Harris who plans to take over the presidency during his first or second term. Make no mistake, the American voters are wary of this Trojan horse play by the Democrats who want a far left President who believes in a socialistic economy, and they know if they vote for Biden, it will be Kamala Harris’s policies that will be rolled out in the end when she eventually takes office. We should also remember that vice president candidate Kamala Harris received poor numbers from her own party in her recent bid to become the Democratic Presidential nominee.
Americans prefer law and order and safety.
The ‘Black Lives Matters’ (BLM) movement has a very important message that will hopefully change the world in some way into the future, however, right now it’s hurting the Democrats. One large focus for voters during this election will be the violent protests and riots that have spawned from the BLM movement. People are scared and afraid and they are going to put law and order, gun ownership and safety for their families, well ahead of any social justice movement or political views. Many Americans are thinking about what might happen if the Police presence is changed in various cities and what might happen if protestors and rioters are given a ‘pass’ by the democrats to do what they want out of fear of losing the far left support within their base. Trump has been pro Law and Order, Biden has not. Trump has been endorsed by every Police department in every state across the USA, Biden has not. It’s also worth noting a huge surge in Gun purchases this year demonstrate Americans real fear of danger and the desire for personal protection. These factors will play a role in voters decision making regardless of what party they support and should attract fresh votes for Trump from segments of the population that have real concerns about the recent social unrest, riots and protesting chaos.
Americans want freedom from Lock downs, masks and restrictions.
Trump is Anti Lock Down and Anti Masks, and his base and many others agree with him on these points, claiming the right to freedom of choice. Biden is Pro Lock downs, Pro restrictions and Pro masks.
Despite the hysterical left wing media constantly bombarding us with Covid-19 fear mongering and ridiculing anybody who isn’t wearing a mask or standing 2 meters apart, there are increasing numbers of American voters from all parties who have lost patience with the Pandemic and the social restrictions it has brought with it. American voters are smart enough to know Trump is trying to balance the Pandemic along with the Economy, and they can see the strategy is working because people are starting to resume work and get back to some kind of ‘new normal’. Ultimately without the economy and jobs there is going to be nothing left to save, and that has been Trumps core message “The cure can’t be worse than the problem”. Even if you disagree with this statement, we all know deep in our hearts that most of us are not going to survive much longer mentally with these virus related restrictions, it simply has to end. The world health organization just admitted lock downs and over the top restrictions are not working and do more damage to people than the virus itself long term. So as it turns out, Trump was right to refuse to keep strict lock downs and restrictions in place across the country and to start opening up the country quickly, going against advice from many advisors. Anybody watching closely know he’s the reason the USA economy is bouncing back faster than anticipated. I think this a huge win for Trump overall on the Covid-19 virus crisis.
Trump is selling his Pro Economy, Pro Jobs, Pro Business and Pro Law & Order stance. Biden isn’t really selling anything other than Raising taxes and Covid-19.
There are a plethora of unique issues going on in the USA this year. Ultimately I believe people are going to be thinking about a few core issues when they cast a vote this year (regardless of political party). These issues are likely to be 1. Finances for self and family 2. Safety for self and family and 3. Health for self and family. I believes Trump’s policy on lower taxes and de-regulation, rebuilding the economy, a firm stance on continued Policing (Law and Order), and his commitment to overhaul parts of the failing American health insurance system, will be front and center in voters minds this year. Many will agree Trump’s slow on health care reform, but from all the data points I am watching, it is really Trump’s pro economy and pro jobs stance during this pandemic that far outweighs almost anything else currently. Remember, people vote with their wallet and bank balance in mind ALOT of the time.
Does anybody believe a person that just returned to work after XYZ months earning zero income, is going to go out and vote for Biden who wants to lock them in their house, force every person in state to wear a mask, and to put more restrictions on them again ? Trump understands the economy and he understands how businesses and workers are feeling right now. He will play this to his advantage with frustrated voters who want to get on with their life, get back to work, or re start a business.
Trump is also pro fossil fuels, pro oil and gas, pro coal, and pro fracking. He has convinced voters that without him they will lose these industries and jobs in certain states. During a recession, this is a very real and very serious issue to most voters in the relevant states where these industries employ millions of people and are the oxygen to these states economies. It’s these policies that that will definitely earn Trump a majority of votes in many of these impacted states come election day.
His opponent Biden’s main policies seem to be transitioning to a ‘greener’ energy economy, raising taxes!, Covid-19 lock downs and masks, and asking people to choose him because he has a more ‘presidential’ personality. These policies aren’t going to win him more votes during a pandemic and economic recession. People simply want to get back to work or business, start making some money again and to start moving around their community, freely and safely again.
Trump is winning over many African American and Hispanic voters.
Due to his positive track record with African and Hispanic American voters in his first few years of office, there has been a big shift in the African American and Hispanic vote for 2020. A recent survey showed African American voters approval rating for President Trump has soared from 20% to 45%. You also have to look at how many African American celebrities have recently come out to support Trump and educate Black voters why Trump is a better choice for them going forward. Actor ‘ICE Cube’ favors Trump because they are working on the ‘Platinum Plan’ together which will benefit the Black community. We then have Musician ’50 Cent’ endorsing Trump, stating ‘ I don’t want to be 20 cent ‘, citing Biden’s plans to raise taxes. What African American is every going to forget Biden’s famous words “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” These extra votes from Black voters and Hispanic voters is something that could help take Trump over the top in key states.
The Silent Trump voter is a very real thing.
Donald Trump on stage in Florida (Image: REUTERS)
Using my own network as an initial example here. I have a business associate in the USA whom is a Trump supporter living in the swing state of Michigan. He will not put up a Trump 2020 sign or flag in the front yard and will not wear a MAGA hat and he won’t put a Trump/Pence bumper sticker on pick up truck. If a pollster calls, texts or emails him, he won’t reveal he is voting for Trump or just won’t respond at all. The reason he explains is due to most of the Democrats being so extremely hateful of Trump and his supporters, especially since the protesting and riots started, he says he risks being attacked and judged within his local community. My friend here is is not alone, with an estimated 25% of Trump supporters never revealing their political views to people they don’t know or trust. As I stated earlier, The Trafalgar Group pollsters understand this Shy Trump voter which is why they have developed a special process to determine if a person is voting for Trump, far different to almost every other pollster out there. If people aren’t telling pollsters they are voting for Trump, it’s no wonder the polls were skewed in 2016 and are be skewed again in 2020.
With the above said, my Prediction is that TRUMP will win the 2020 US Election with around 270 to 310 electoral college votes. With the current odds on Trump offered by bookmakers at $2.80 or 9/5 (almost a 2 to 1 risk reward), the opportunity looks compelling. Given my conviction on the outcome, I have wagered a high 6 figure sum at average odds of around $2.60. If successful, my total winnings on both Trump wagers across 2016 and 2020 will exceed $600k AUD. If you do intend to take a view on the 2020 election via the stock market or via wagering markets, please do your own research first and be smart with what capital you are risking.
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