I’ve just placed a sizeable 6 figure bet on TRUMP to win re-election in the US 2020 presidential race, here’s why…
Many of my long time readers will remember my wager on Trump to win the election in 2016 which returned over 500%, a giant trade and a result that most people around me said could never happen. Fast forward to 2020, and those same people are telling me Trump can’t win again.
Readers might also remember I predicted three big events for 2020 in my Coronavirus article I posted in March 2020, two of which have come true so far, with one pending.
1. The US economy would bounce back in a V shape recovery (called that correctly so far). 2. The stock market crash was a buying opportunity (called that correctly as market has surged higher). 3. Trump was likely to be re elected in 2020 (result pending, will know shortly).
For those interested in the 2020 election from a from a financial markets / betting markets perspective, this article will outline why I believe Trump will win re-election in 2020 and retain the white house. Just like I did for the 2016 US election, I am going to be presenting some unique data and various perspectives on the 2020 US election that most people are usually afraid to share publicly or have not bothered to go out and find from alternative publications outside of the mainstream media outlets.
To benefit from this article you will need to put your political bias and any views of Trump aside for a moment. I’m not American, but after seeing Trump’s first term in office, I would personally vote for Trump in 2020 for a variety of financial and economic reasons. In saying that, remember, I am a business person, a trader and investor, so there are built in capitalistic biases here. I have good friends in the USA who have left and right side views, and it always makes for a good healthy debate, but it never divides us and it never should. I do not judge people for having different political views, we all have our reasons for these views, different upbringings and different circumstances that lead to us having these belief systems. With that said, these differing views don’t have a place in Predicting the 2020 election or any election for that matter, and we must remove all emotion in performing meaningful analysis.
Here’s why I believe TRUMP wins 2020.
Disclaimer: (Don’t trade, invest or bet based on the views in this article, please do your own research)
The Statistical Metrics:
The Prediction Polls are wrong (again).
We all know 99% of the polling predictions were wrong in 2016, and many contrarians now believe they are wrong again in 2020 (including me). As of today, the few polls I know of that correctly predicted the 2016 election are also predicting a Trump win in 2020.
Rasmussen, one of the the most accurate pollsters that predicted 2016 election result, is today showing 52% of Americans approve of Trump as president, a number that is equal to or higher than Obama was at going into his Final term as president in 2012. The presidential approval rating is tracked daily and is rapidly increasing in recent weeks.
The Trafalgar Group pollsters had been incredibly accurate in 2016 election using a state by state electoral college prediction model with unique questions and unique collection methods, proving far superior to other pollsters. They are known for apply a different polling method designed to target silent Trump voters who are usually too afraid to give an opinion to a stranger out of fear of being attacked or trolled. One question they ask voters is ‘Who is your Neighbor voting for’ which has a very high level of success in predicting US elections as it turns out, and apparently the answer to this question is overwhelmingly as ‘Trump’. They are also known for connecting with African American and Hispanic voters in a unique way to create a more ‘ real world ‘ sample size of the American voter demographic in each state. For 2020 Trafalgar are again predicting the US electoral college will be won by Trump, and they are currently reporting an accelerating move to Trump in key swing states (US states that historically can change from Democrat to Republican or vice versa) in the closing stages of the race. Trafalgar poll data is often completely different to mainstream poll data you might see on TV or mainstream websites. All we can go off is who was most accurate previously, and Trafalgar have that edge in both 2016 main election and the 2018 mid term election, so they should have our attention.
We have a famous Gallop poll that reported 56% of Americans say they are better off financially under Trump than under Obama/Biden, the highest number recorded ever for that poll. This just can’t be ignored especially when you consider we are in the middle of a Pandemic and an economic slow down. The ‘are you better off poll’ has been a major predictor of US election results in recent years.
Back in 2016, an article by radio host and author Wayne Allyn Root helped me fully understand Fake Polls and the Hidden Trump vote. He is again out there discussing these same points for Trump in 2020, citing fake polls and social evidence proving Trump’s overwhelming popularity. You can read a recent article by Wayne Allyn Root on Trump’s chances for 2020 here.
From the above sources, we can see the Polling evidence shows momentum for Trump late into the race, just like 2016. Keep an eye on the Rasmussen Daily Presidential approval rating poll and Trafalgar state by state polling data closer to election day.
The Primary Model predicts US election wins 90% of the time:
Professor Helmut Norpoth accurately predicts US elections using a method he has developed call the ‘Primary Model’. He looks at the % of vote each Presidential candidate received within their own respective political party during the Primary vote before the main election. According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in 2020. For the record, the Primary Model has picked the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. You can read more about Professor Norpoths Primary Model here.
Trump has the incumbent edge:
Most Presidents typically get re-elected for a 2nd term. It’s very hard to win an election against the Incumbent president.
It’s very interesting to note that in the three times in history that America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year, the incumbent political party has had a 3-0 winning record in those elections.
Of the forty five presidents who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, IF they have attempted to run for a second term. Some may argue the recession changes these statistics for re-election of the incumbent president, but when you look more closely, the stats on re-election of a President who won an election (as opposed to being promoted from vice president to president), are actually closer to 50/50 during a pandemic, so there is no statistical bias to note.
The Social Metrics:
Trump’s supporters and enthusiasm are completely unmatched.
Trump has true ‘love of country’, and a lot of the country loves him back, despite what the media says. Drive anywhere in most of the USA’s 50 states right now (except California and New York), and you are far more likely to see Trump signs and flags lining freeways, streets and front yards. Attend a Trump campaign rally, a presidential motorcade drive by, an air force one landing or take off, a car or boat parade or anything involving President Trump that’s an ‘in person’ event where fans can gather and cheer, and the attendance numbers are staggering in size. These are the largest numbers of support on the ground for any Presidential candidate in US election history. Biden doesn’t even make a dent on Trump’s ground support and the enthusiasm, with a handful of voters turning out for any of Biden’s campaign events. We are talking about completely different stratospheres of enthusiasm between the candidates here. Those that follow elections know that Enthusiasm wins elections. Trump has a truly unshakeable supporter base and as of Today’s polling numbers has mid 90% approval rating within the Republican party which is probably the highest on record.
Comments